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function [yforelml,yforemgml,yforeqgml,yforeCalygml,yactl,yactmg,yactqg,yactCalyg,yactlog] = ...
fore_mqy(yfore,xdata,nvar,nSample,nSampleCal,...
forep,forepq,forepy,q_m,qmEnd,vlist,vlistlog,vlistper,...
lmqyIndx,indxCal)
% [yforelml,yforemgml,yforeqgml,yforeCalygml,yactl,yactmg,yactqg,yactCalyg,yactlog] = ...
% fore_mqy(yfore,xdata,nvar,nSample,nSampleCal,...
% forep,forepq,forepy,q_m,qmEnd,vlist,vlistlog,vlistper,...
% lmqyIndx,indxCal)
%
% Converting oringinal forecast "yfore" to series by calendar years and series
% with growth rates (annualized for monthly and quarterly series) and
% with corresponding actual data (ONLY valid when we have actual data.
% Later should add an index to allow an option out 3/23/99).
% 3/23/99 I guess that this program is more general than fore_cal because it allows
% for non-Calendar annual growth rate calculation if nSample before "forep" and
% and q_m before "vlist" are used.
%
% yfore: oringal forecast series, all logged except R, U, etc.
% xdata: oringal data set, up to the period before (peudo-) out-of-sample forecasting,
% all logged except R, U, etc.
% nvar: number of variables
% nSample: sample size (including lags or initial periods)
% nSampleCal: sample size in terms of calendar years
% forep: forecast periods (monthly)
% forepq: forecast periods (quarterly)
% forepy: forecast periods (yearly)
% q_m: quarterly or monthly for the underlying model
% qmEnd: last q_m before out-of-sample forecasting
% vlist: a list of variables
% vlistlog: sub list of variables that are in log
% vlistper: sub list of variables that are in percent
% lmyqIndx: 4-by-1 1 or 0's. Index for level, mg, qg, and yg; 1: yes; 0: no
% indxCal: 1: calendar years; 0: (NOT calendar) years
%----------------
% yforelml: forep-by-nvar, ymonthly ML forecast, all at level, in percent
% yforemgml: ML forecasts, monthly growth (at annual rates), in percent
% yforeqgml: ML forecast: quarterly growth (at annual rates), in percent
% yforeCalygml: forepq-by-nvar ML forecast: annual growth, in percent
% yactl: forep-by-nvar, actual, all at level, in percent
% yactmg:
% yactqg:
% yactCalyg: forepq-by-nvar, actual, annual growth, in percent
% yactlog: forep-by-nvar, actual, all log except R and U.
%
% Written by Tao Zha March 1998
% Revised, 3/23/99. Added "lmqyIndx" so that previous programs may not be compatible.
% Revised, 4/27/99. Added "indxCal" so that previous programs may not be compatible.
%
% Copyright (C) 1997-2012 Tao Zha
%
% This free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
% (at your option) any later version.
%
% It is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
% GNU General Public License for more details.
%
% If you did not received a copy of the GNU General Public License
% with this software, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
%
%=================================================
% Making everything presentable at FOMC
%=================================================
%
%%%%
%$$$ Monthly, prior quarter, and year-over-year change
%$$$ Out-of-sample forecasts
%%%%
%
if length(lmqyIndx)~=4
warning('lmqyIndx must be a 4-by-1 vector containing 1 or 0')
return
end
%---------------------
% Actual data
%---------------------
yact = xdata(nSample-q_m+1:nSample,:); % the latest (not calender) year
yactCal = xdata(nSampleCal-q_m+1:nSampleCal,:);
% the lastest calendar year (always earlier than the lastest (not calendar) year
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to monthly level
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(1)
yforelml=yfore;
yforelml(:,vlistlog)=exp(yfore(:,vlistlog)); % mode, all levels
yforelml(:,vlistper)=100*yfore(:,vlistper); % mode, all levels
else
yforelml = NaN;
end
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to monthly growth
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(2)
yactm = zeros(1,length(vlist)); % the latest month prior to forecasting
yforem = zeros(1+forep,length(vlist)); % including the 1 month prior to forecasting
%
yactm = yact(length(yact(:,1)),:); % last month prior to forecasting
yforem(1,:) = yactm; % last month prior to forecasting
yforem(2:forep+1,:) = yfore(1:forep,:); % monthly forecasts, all logged.
%
%@@ monthly growth rate (annualized)
yforemg = yforem(2:forep+1,:);
yforemg(:,vlistlog) = ( yforem(2:forep+1,vlistlog) - yforem(1:forep,vlistlog) ) .* q_m;
% monthly change (annualized), 12*log(1+growth rate)
yforemgml=yforemg;
yforemgml(:,vlistlog) = 100*(exp(yforemg(:,vlistlog))-1); % monthly growth rate (annualized)
yforemgml(:,vlistper) = 100*yforemg(:,vlistper); % monthly growth rate (annualized)
else
yforemgml=NaN;
end
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to quarterly
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(3)
yactQ = xdata(nSample-mod(qmEnd,3)-q_m+1:nSample-mod(qmEnd,3),:); % the latest actual quarter
yactq = zeros(4,length(vlist)); % the latest 4 quarters prior to forecasting
yforeq = zeros(4+forepq,length(vlist)); % including the 4 quarters prior to forecasting
%
qT1 = length(yactQ(:,1))/3;
if qT1 ~= 4
error('Must hae 4 actual quarters to compute quarterly change for forecasting!')
end
for i = 1:qT1
i1 = 1+3*(i-1);
i2 = 3*i;
yactq(i,:) = sum(yact(i1:i2,:)) ./ 3;
end
yforeq(1:4,:) = yactq;
%
yforeq_1 = sum(xdata( nSample-mod(qmEnd,3)+1:nSample,:),1);
yforeq(5,:) = ( yforeq_1 + sum(yfore(1:3-mod(qmEnd,3),:),1) ) ./ 3;
% 1st quarterly forecast which may contain actual data within quarter
% note, dimension "1" in sum(ytem,1) is necessary because when
% qmEnd=1, sum(ytem,1) will give us a nomber, not a vector. But this
% is not what we want.
for i = 2:forepq
i1 = 3-mod(qmEnd,3) + 1+3*(i-2);
i2 = 3-mod(qmEnd,3) + 3*(i-1);
yforeq(4+i,:) = sum(yfore(i1:i2,:)) ./ 3;
end
%
%@@ prior quarter growth rate (annualized)
yforeqg = yforeq(5:forepq+4,:);
%yforeqg(:,vlistlog) = (100*(yforeq(5:qT2+4,vlistlog)-yforeq(1:qT2,vlistlog))) ...
% ./ yforeq(1:qT2,vlistlog); % year-over-year
%yforeqg(:,vlistlog) = 100*((yforeq(5:qT2+4,vlistlog)./yforeq(4:qT2+3,vlistlog)).^4 - 1 );
% prior quarter
yforeqg(:,vlistlog) = ( yforeq(5:forepq+4,vlistlog) - yforeq(4:forepq+3,vlistlog) ) .* 4;
% prior quarter, 4*log(1+growth rate)
yforeqgml=yforeqg;
yforeqgml(:,vlistlog) = 100*(exp(yforeqg(:,vlistlog))-1); % quarterly growth rate (annualized)
yforeqgml(:,vlistper) = 100*yforeqg(:,vlistper); % quarterly growth rate (annualized)
else
yforeqgml = NaN;
end
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to annual years (may not be calendar)
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(4)
yactCaly = zeros(1,length(vlist)); % the latest calendar year
yforeCaly = zeros(1+forepy,length(vlist)); % including the calendar year prior to forecasting
%
yT1 = length(yactCal(:,1))/q_m;
if yT1 ~= 1
error('yT1 Beginings or ends of monthly and calendar series are not the same!')
end
for i = 1:yT1
i1 = 1+q_m*(i-1);
i2 = q_m*i;
yactCaly(i,:) = sum(yactCal(i1:i2,:)) ./ q_m;
end
yforeCaly(1,:) = yactCaly;
%
%@@ initial monthly actual data for calendar years
if qmEnd == q_m
yforeCaly_1 = 0;
else
ytem = xdata(nSampleCal+1:nSampleCal+qmEnd,:);
%ytem(:,vlistlog) = exp(ytem(:,vlistlog));
yforeCaly_1 = sum(ytem,1);
% note, dimension "1" in sum(ytem,1) is necessary because when
% qmEnd=1, sum(ytem,1) will give us a nomber, not a vector. But this
% is not what we want.
end
%
if qmEnd == q_m
for i = 1:forepy
i1 = 1+q_m*(i-1);
i2 = q_m*i;
yforeCaly(1+i,:) = sum(yfore(i1:i2,:)) ./ q_m;
end
else
yforeCaly(2,:) = (yforeCaly_1+sum(yfore(1:q_m-qmEnd,:),1)) ./ q_m;
% note, dimension "1" in sum(yfore,1) is necessary because when
% q_m-qmEnd=1, sum(yfore) will give us a number, not a vector. But this
% is not what we want.
for i = 2:forepy
i1 = q_m-qmEnd+1+q_m*(i-2);
i2 = q_m-qmEnd+q_m*(i-1);
yforeCaly(1+i,:) = sum(yfore(i1:i2,:)) ./ q_m;
end
end
%
%@@ year-over-year growth rate
yforeCalyg = yforeCaly(2:forepy+1,:);
yforeCalyg(:,vlistlog) = yforeCaly(2:forepy+1,vlistlog) - yforeCaly(1:forepy,vlistlog);
% year-over-year, log(1+growth rate)
yforeCalygml=yforeCalyg;
yforeCalygml(:,vlistlog) = 100*(exp(yforeCalyg(:,vlistlog))-1); % annaul growth rate
yforeCalygml(:,vlistper) = 100*yforeCalyg(:,vlistper); % annaul growth rate
else
yforeCalygml = NaN;
end
%----------------------------------------------------------------------
% --------------------- Actual -----------------------------------------
%----------------------------------------------------------------------
if indxCal
Rem_qm = q_m-qmEnd; % remaining months within the first calendar year
Rem_y = floor((forep-Rem_qm)/q_m); % remaining calendar years after the first one
yact = xdata(nSample-2*q_m+1:nSample+Rem_qm+Rem_y*q_m,:);
% 2*q_m (not calendar) months + months ended at last calendar year
else
yact = xdata(nSample-q_m+1:nSample+forep,:); % q_m (not calendar) months + forep
end
mT1 = length(yact(:,1));
yactlog = yact(q_m+1:mT1,:);
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to monthly level
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(1)
yactl=yactlog;
yactl(:,vlistlog)=exp(yactlog(:,vlistlog)); % mode, all levels
yactl(:,vlistper)=100*yactlog(:,vlistper); % mode, all levels
else
yactl=NaN;
end
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to monthly growth
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(2)
yactmg = yactl;
yactmg(:,vlistlog) = (yact(q_m+1:mT1,vlistlog) - yact(q_m:mT1-1,vlistlog)) .* 12;
% monthly, 12*log(1+growth rate), annualized growth rate
yactmg(:,vlistlog) = 100*(exp(yactmg(:,vlistlog))-1);
yactmg(:,vlistper) = 100*yactmg(:,vlistper);
else
yactmg=NaN;
end
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to quarterly
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(3)
warning(' ')
disp('Not worked out yet. 4/27/99')
disp('Press ctrl-c to abort!')
pause
yactQ = yact(10:mT1,:); % October: beginning of the 4th quarter
yactq = zeros(1+forepq,length(vlist));
qT1 = 1+forepq;
%
for i = 1:qT1
i1 = 1+3*(i-1);
i2 = 3*i;
yactq(i,:) = sum(yactQ(i1:i2,:)) ./ 3;
end
%
yactqg = yactq(2:qT1,:); % 4+1=5 where 4 means 4 quarters
yactqg(:,vlistlog) = (yactq(2:qT1,vlistlog) - yactq(1:qT1-1,vlistlog)) .* 4;
% quarterly, 4*log(1+growth rate), annualized growth rate
yactqg(:,vlistlog) = 100*(exp(yactqg(:,vlistlog))-1);
yactqg(:,vlistper) = 100*yactqg(:,vlistper);
else
yactqg=NaN;
end
%-----------------------------------------
% Converted to annual years (may not be calendar)
%-----------------------------------------
if lmqyIndx(4)
if indxCal
yT1 = 1+forepy;
yactCaly = zeros(yT1,length(vlist)); % the latest 1+forepy calendar years
for i = 1:yT1
i1 = ( Rem_qm+q_m*(qmEnd==q_m) ) + 1+q_m*(i-1);
i2 = ( Rem_qm+q_m*(qmEnd==q_m) ) + q_m*i;
yactCaly(i,:) = sum(yact(i1:i2,:)) ./ q_m;
end
%
yactCalyg = yactCaly(2:yT1,:); % 1+1=2 where 1 means 1 year
yactCalyg(:,vlistlog) = (yactCaly(2:yT1,vlistlog) - yactCaly(1:yT1-1,vlistlog));
% annual rate: log(1+growth rate)
yactCalyg(:,vlistlog) = 100*(exp(yactCalyg(:,vlistlog))-1);
yactCalyg(:,vlistper) = 100*yactCalyg(:,vlistper);
else
yT1 = 1+forepy;
for i = 1:yT1
i1 = 1+q_m*(i-1);
i2 = q_m*i;
yactCaly(i,:) = sum(yact(i1:i2,:)) ./ q_m;
end
%
yactCalyg = yactCaly(2:yT1,:); % 1+1=2 where 1 means 1 year
yactCalyg(:,vlistlog) = (yactCaly(2:yT1,vlistlog) - yactCaly(1:yT1-1,vlistlog));
% annual rate: log(1+growth rate)
yactCalyg(:,vlistlog) = 100*(exp(yactCalyg(:,vlistlog))-1);
yactCalyg(:,vlistper) = 100*yactCalyg(:,vlistper);
end
else
yactCalyg=NaN;
end
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