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function [LIK, lik] = gaussian_mixture_filter(ReducedForm, Y, start, ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, options_, M_)
% Evaluates the likelihood of a non-linear model approximating the state
% variables distributions with gaussian mixtures. Gaussian Mixture allows reproducing
% a wide variety of generalized distributions (when multimodal for instance).
% Each gaussian distribution is obtained whether
% - with a radial-spherical cubature
% - with scaled unscented sigma-points
% A Sparse grid Kalman Filter is implemented on each component of the mixture,
% which confers it a weight about current information.
% Information on the current observables is then embodied in the proposal
% distribution in which we draw particles, which allows
% - reaching a greater precision relatively to a standard particle filter,
% - reducing the number of particles needed,
% - still being faster.
%
%
% INPUTS
% reduced_form_model [structure] Matlab's structure describing the reduced form model.
% reduced_form_model.measurement.H [double] (pp x pp) variance matrix of measurement errors.
% reduced_form_model.state.Q [double] (qq x qq) variance matrix of state errors.
% reduced_form_model.state.dr [structure] output of resol.m.
% Y [double] pp*smpl matrix of (detrended) data, where pp is the maximum number of observed variables.
% start [integer] scalar, likelihood evaluation starts at 'start'.
%
% OUTPUTS
% LIK [double] scalar, likelihood
% lik [double] vector, density of observations in each period.
%
% REFERENCES
%
% Van der Meerwe & Wan, Gaussian Mixture Sigma-Point Particle Filters for Sequential
% Probabilistic Inference in Dynamic State-Space Models.
% Heiss & Winschel, 2010, Journal of Applied Economics.
% Winschel & Kratzig, 2010, Econometrica.
%
% NOTES
% The vector "lik" is used to evaluate the jacobian of the likelihood.
% Copyright © 2009-2017 Dynare Team
%
% This file is part of Dynare.
%
% Dynare is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
% it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
% the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
% (at your option) any later version.
%
% Dynare is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
% but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
% MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
% GNU General Public License for more details.
%
% You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
% along with Dynare. If not, see <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
% Set default
if isempty(start)
start = 1;
end
mf0 = ReducedForm.mf0;
mf1 = ReducedForm.mf1;
sample_size = size(Y,2);
number_of_state_variables = length(mf0);
number_of_observed_variables = length(mf1);
number_of_structural_innovations = length(ReducedForm.Q);
G = ParticleOptions.mixture_state_variables; % number of GM components in state
number_of_particles = ParticleOptions.number_of_particles;
% compute gaussian quadrature nodes and weights on states and shocks
if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.cubature
[nodes, weights] = spherical_radial_sigma_points(number_of_state_variables);
elseif ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.unscented
[nodes, weights] = unscented_sigma_points(number_of_state_variables, ParticleOptions);
else
if ~ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo
error('This approximation for the proposal is unknown!')
end
end
if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo
options_=set_dynare_seed_local_options(options_,'default');
end
% Get covariance matrices
Q = ReducedForm.Q;
H = ReducedForm.H;
if isempty(H)
H = 0;
H_lower_triangular_cholesky = 0;
else
H_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(H)';
end
Q_lower_triangular_cholesky = reduced_rank_cholesky(Q)';
% Initialize mixtures
StateWeights = ones(1, G)/G;
StateMu = ReducedForm.StateVectorMean;
StateSqrtP = zeros(number_of_state_variables, number_of_state_variables, G);
temp = reduced_rank_cholesky(ReducedForm.StateVectorVariance)';
StateMu = bsxfun(@plus, StateMu, bsxfun(@times,diag(temp), (-(G-1)/2:1:(G-1)/2))/10);
for g=1:G
StateSqrtP(:,:,g) = temp/sqrt(G) ;
end
if ~ParticleOptions.mixture_structural_shocks
StructuralShocksMu = zeros(1, number_of_structural_innovations);
StructuralShocksWeights = 1;
I = 1;
StructuralShocksMu = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky*StructuralShocksMu';
StructuralShocksSqrtP = zeros(number_of_structural_innovations, number_of_structural_innovations, I);
StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,1) = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky;
elseif ParticleOptions.mixture_structural_shocks==1
if ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.cubature
[StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = spherical_radial_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations);
StructuralShocksWeights = ones(size(StructuralShocksMu, 1), 1)*StructuralShocksWeights;
elseif ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.unscented
[StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = unscented_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations, ParticleOptions);
else
if ~ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo
error('This approximation for the proposal is unknown!')
end
end
I = size(StructuralShocksWeights, 1);
StructuralShocksMu = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky*StructuralShocksMu';
StructuralShocksSqrtP = zeros(number_of_structural_innovations, number_of_structural_innovations, I);
for i=1:I
StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,i) = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky;
end
else
if ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.cubature
[StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = spherical_radial_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations);
StructuralShocksWeights = ones(size(StructuralShocksMu, 1), 1)*StructuralShocksWeights ;
elseif ParticleOptions.proposal_approximation.unscented
[StructuralShocksMu, StructuralShocksWeights] = unscented_sigma_points(number_of_structural_innovations, ParticleOptions);
else
if ~ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.montecarlo
error('This approximation for the proposal is unknown!')
end
end
I = size(StructuralShocksWeights, 1);
StructuralShocksMu = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky*StructuralShocksMu';
StructuralShocksSqrtP = zeros(number_of_structural_innovations, number_of_structural_innovations, I);
for i=1:I
StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,i) = Q_lower_triangular_cholesky/sqrt(StructuralShocksWeights(i));
end
end
ObservationShocksWeights = 1;
J = 1 ;
Gprime = G*I;
Gsecond = G*I*J;
SampleWeights = ones(Gsecond, 1)/Gsecond;
StateWeightsPrior = zeros(1,Gprime);
StateMuPrior = zeros(number_of_state_variables,Gprime);
StateSqrtPPrior = zeros(number_of_state_variables, number_of_state_variables, Gprime);
StateWeightsPost = zeros(1, Gsecond);
StateMuPost = zeros(number_of_state_variables, Gsecond);
StateSqrtPPost = zeros(number_of_state_variables, number_of_state_variables, Gsecond);
const_lik = (2*pi)^(.5*number_of_observed_variables);
lik = NaN(sample_size, 1);
LIK = NaN;
for t=1:sample_size
% Build the proposal joint quadratures of Gaussian on states, structural
% shocks and observation shocks based on each combination of mixtures
for i=1:I
for j=1:J
for g=1:G
gprime = g + (i-1)*G;
gsecond = gprime + (j-1)*Gprime;
[StateMuPrior(:,gprime), StateSqrtPPrior(:,:,gprime), StateWeightsPrior(1,gprime), ...
StateMuPost(:,gsecond), StateSqrtPPost(:,:,gsecond), StateWeightsPost(1,gsecond)] = ...
gaussian_mixture_filter_bank(ReducedForm,Y(:,t), StateMu(:,g), StateSqrtP(:,:,g), StateWeights(g),...
StructuralShocksMu(:,i), StructuralShocksSqrtP(:,:,i), StructuralShocksWeights(i),...
ObservationShocksWeights(j), H, H_lower_triangular_cholesky, const_lik, ...
ParticleOptions, ThreadsOptions, options_, M_);
end
end
end
% Normalize weights
StateWeightsPrior = StateWeightsPrior/sum(StateWeightsPrior, 2);
StateWeightsPost = StateWeightsPost/sum(StateWeightsPost, 2);
if ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.cubature || ParticleOptions.distribution_approximation.unscented
for i=1:Gsecond
StateParticles = bsxfun(@plus, StateMuPost(:,i), StateSqrtPPost(:,:,i)*nodes');
IncrementalWeights = gaussian_mixture_densities(Y(:,t), StateMuPrior, StateSqrtPPrior, StateWeightsPrior, ...
StateMuPost, StateSqrtPPost, StateWeightsPost, StateParticles, H, ...
ReducedForm, ThreadsOptions, options_, M_);
SampleWeights(i) = sum(StateWeightsPost(i)*weights.*IncrementalWeights);
end
SumSampleWeights = sum(SampleWeights);
lik(t) = log(SumSampleWeights);
SampleWeights = SampleWeights./SumSampleWeights;
[~, SortedRandomIndx] = sort(rand(1,Gsecond));
SortedRandomIndx = SortedRandomIndx(1:G);
indx = resample(0,SampleWeights,ParticleOptions);
indx = indx(SortedRandomIndx);
StateMu = StateMuPost(:,indx);
StateSqrtP = StateSqrtPPost(:,:,indx);
StateWeights = ones(1,G)/G;
else
% Sample particle in the proposal distribution, ie the posterior state GM
StateParticles = importance_sampling(StateMuPost,StateSqrtPPost,StateWeightsPost',number_of_particles);
IncrementalWeights = gaussian_mixture_densities(Y(:,t), StateMuPrior, StateSqrtPPrior, StateWeightsPrior, ...
StateMuPost, StateSqrtPPost, StateWeightsPost, StateParticles, H, ...
ReducedForm, ThreadsOptions, options_, M_);
SampleWeights = IncrementalWeights/number_of_particles;
SumSampleWeights = sum(SampleWeights,1);
SampleWeights = SampleWeights./SumSampleWeights;
lik(t) = log(SumSampleWeights);
if (ParticleOptions.resampling.status.generic && neff(SampleWeights)<ParticleOptions.resampling.threshold*sample_size) || ParticleOptions.resampling.status.systematic
StateParticles = resample(StateParticles',SampleWeights',ParticleOptions)';
SampleWeights = ones(number_of_particles,1)/number_of_particles;
end
[StateMu, StateSqrtP, StateWeights] = fit_gaussian_mixture(StateParticles, SampleWeights', StateMu, StateSqrtP, StateWeights, 0.001, 10, 1);
end
end
LIK = -sum(lik(start:end));
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