File: as_driver.c

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/* shared between AS 154 and AS 197 */

struct as_info {
    int algo;
    int p;
    int P;
    int q;
    int Q;
    int pd;
    int plen;
    int qlen;
    int r;
    int rp1;       /* AS 197 */
    int np, nrbar; /* AS 154 */
    int ifault;
    int n;
    int ok_n;
    int ifc;
    /* AR and MA coeffs */
    double *phi, *theta;
     /* dependent var and forecast errors */
    double *y, *y0, *e;
    /* AS 197 workspace */
    double *vw, *vl, *vk;
    /* AS 154 workspace */
    double *A, *P0, *V;
    double *thetab;
    double *xnext, *xrow, *rbar;
    double *evec;
    /* components of likelihood */
    double sumsq, fact, sumlog;
    double toler;  /* tolerance for switching to fast iterations */
    double loglik;
    BFGS_CRIT_FUNC cfunc;
    int ma_check;
    int iupd; /* specific to AS 154 */
    int ncalls;
    arma_info *ai;
    gretl_matrix *X;
    int free_X;
};

static int as_154_alloc (struct as_info *as)
{
    int err = 0;

    /* unused pointers specific to AS 197 */
    as->vw = as->vl = as->vk = NULL;

    as->phi =   malloc(as->r * sizeof *as->phi);
    as->theta = malloc(as->r * sizeof *as->theta);
    as->A =     malloc(as->r * sizeof *as->A);
    as->P0 =    malloc(as->np * sizeof *as->P0);
    as->V =     malloc(as->np * sizeof *as->V);
    as->e =     malloc(as->n * sizeof *as->e);
    as->evec =  malloc(as->r * sizeof *as->evec);

    if (as->phi == NULL || as->theta == NULL || as->A == NULL ||
	as->P0 == NULL || as->V == NULL || as->e == NULL ||
	as->evec == NULL) {
	err = E_ALLOC;
    }

    if (!err) {
	int worklen = 3 * as->np + as->nrbar;

	as->thetab = malloc(worklen * sizeof *as->thetab);
	if (as->thetab == NULL) {
	    err = E_ALLOC;
	} else {
	    as->xnext = as->thetab + as->np;
	    as->xrow = as->xnext + as->np;
	    as->rbar = as->xrow + as->np;
	}
    }

    return err;
}

static int as_197_alloc (struct as_info *as)
{
    int err = 0;

    /* unused pointers specific to AS 154 */
    as->A = as->P0 = as->V = as->evec = NULL;
    as->thetab = as->xnext = as->xrow = as->rbar = NULL;

    as->phi = as->theta = NULL;

    if (as->plen > 0) {
	as->phi = malloc(as->plen * sizeof *as->phi);
	if (as->phi == NULL) {
	    err = E_ALLOC;
	}
    }

    if (!err && as->qlen > 0) {
	as->theta = malloc(as->qlen * sizeof *as->theta);
	if (as->theta == NULL) {
	    err = E_ALLOC;
	}
    }

    if (!err) {
	int worklen = as->n + 2*as->rp1 + as->r;

	as->e =  malloc(worklen * sizeof *as->e);
	if (as->e == NULL) {
	    err = E_ALLOC;
	} else {
	    as->vw = as->e + as->n;
	    as->vl = as->vw + as->rp1;
	    as->vk = as->vl + as->rp1;
	}
    }

    return err;
}

static int as_info_init (struct as_info *as,
			 int algo,
			 arma_info *ai,
			 double toler)
{
    int err = 0;

    as->algo = algo;
    as->ai = ai; /* create accessor */

    /* convenience copies of @ai integer values */
    as->p = ai->p;
    as->P = ai->P;
    as->q = ai->q;
    as->Q = ai->Q;
    as->pd = ai->pd;
    as->n = ai->fullT;
    as->ok_n = ai->T;
    as->ifc = ai->ifc;

    as->plen = as->p + as->pd * as->P;
    as->qlen = as->q + as->pd * as->Q;
    as->r = (as->plen > as->qlen + 1)? as->plen : as->qlen + 1;

    if (algo == 154) {
	as->np = as->r * (as->r + 1)/2;
	as->nrbar = as->np * (as->np - 1)/2;
	as->rp1 = 0;
    } else {
	as->rp1 = as->r + 1;
	as->np = as->nrbar = 0;
    }

    as->y = as->y0 = NULL; /* later! */
    as->X = NULL; /* later too */
    as->free_X = 0;

    if (algo == 154) {
	err = as_154_alloc(as);
    } else {
	err = as_197_alloc(as);
    }

    if (!err) {
	as->toler = toler;
	as->loglik = NADBL;
	as->ifault = 0;
	as->ma_check = 0;
	as->iupd = 1; /* AS 154: FIXME AR(1) */
	as->ncalls = 0;
    }

    return err;
}

static void as_info_free (struct as_info *as)
{
    free(as->phi);
    free(as->theta);
    free(as->e);
    free(as->y0);

    if (as->algo == 154) {
	free(as->A);
	free(as->P0);
	free(as->V);
	free(as->evec);
	free(as->thetab);
    }

    if (as->free_X) {
	gretl_matrix_free(as->X);
    }
}

static void as_write_big_phi (const double *b,
			      struct as_info *as)
{
    const double *bs = b + as->ai->np;
    double x, y;
    int i, j, k, ii;

    for (i=0; i<as->plen; i++) {
	as->phi[i] = 0.0;
    }

    for (j=-1; j<as->P; j++) {
	x = (j < 0)? -1 : bs[j];
	k = 0;
        for (i=-1; i<as->p; i++) {
	    if (i < 0) {
		y = -1;
	    } else if (AR_included(as->ai, i)) {
		y = b[k++];
	    } else {
		y = 0.0;
	    }
            ii = (j+1) * as->pd + (i+1);
	    if (ii > 0) {
		as->phi[ii-1] -= x * y;
	    }
        }
    }
}

static void as_write_big_theta (const double *b,
				struct as_info *as)
{
    const double *bs = b + as->ai->nq;
    double x, y;
    int i, j, k, ii;

    for (i=0; i<as->qlen; i++) {
	as->theta[i] = 0.0;
    }

    for (j=-1; j<as->Q; j++) {
	x = (j < 0)? 1 : bs[j];
	k = 0;
        for (i=-1; i<as->q; i++) {
	    if (i < 0) {
		y = 1;
	    } else if (MA_included(as->ai, i)) {
		y = b[k++];
	    } else {
		y = 0.0;
	    }
            ii = (j+1) * as->pd + (i+1);
	    if (ii > 0) {
		as->theta[ii-1] += x * y;
	    }
        }
    }
}

static void as_fill_arrays (struct as_info *as,
			    const double *b)
{
    int np = as->ai->np + as->P;
    int nq = as->ai->nq + as->Q;
    double mu = 0.0;
    int i, j;

    if (as->ifc) {
	mu = b[0];
	if (as->ai->nexo == 0) {
	    /* just subtract the constant */
	    for (i=0; i<as->n; i++) {
		as->y[i] = as->y0[i];
		if (!isnan(as->y0[i])) {
		    as->y[i] -= mu;
		}
	    }
	}
	b++;
    }

    if (as->P > 0) {
	as_write_big_phi(b, as);
    } else if (as->p > 0) {
	j = 0;
	for (i=0; i<as->p; i++) {
	    if (AR_included(as->ai, i)) {
		as->phi[i] = b[j++];
	    } else {
		as->phi[i] = 0.0;
	    }
	}
    }
    b += np;

    if (as->Q > 0) {
	as_write_big_theta(b, as);
    } else if (as->q > 0) {
	j = 0;
	for (i=0; i<as->q; i++) {
	    if (MA_included(as->ai, i)) {
		as->theta[i] = b[j++];
	    } else {
		as->theta[i] = 0.0;
	    }
	}
    }
    b += nq;

    if (as->ai->nexo > 0) {
	/* subtract the regression effect */
	double xij;

	for (i=0; i<as->n; i++) {
	    as->y[i] = as->y0[i];
	    if (!isnan(as->y[i])) {
		if (as->ifc) {
		    as->y[i] -= mu;
		}
		for (j=0; j<as->ai->nexo; j++) {
		    xij = gretl_matrix_get(as->X, i, j);
		    as->y[i] -= xij * b[j];
		}
	    }
	}
    }
}

/* full ARMA loglikelihood */

static double as_loglikelihood (const struct as_info *as)
{
    double ll1 = 1.0 + LN_2_PI + log(as->sumsq / as->ok_n);

    if (as->algo == 154) {
	return -0.5 * (as->ok_n * ll1 + as->sumlog);
    } else {
	return -0.5 * as->ok_n * (ll1 + log(as->fact));
    }
}

static double as197_iteration (const double *b, void *data)
{
    struct as_info *as = data;
    double crit = NADBL;
    /* number of actually included AR terms */
    int np = as->ai->np + as->P;

    as->ncalls += 1;

    if (as->ma_check) {
	/* check that MA term(s) are within bounds */
	double *theta = (double *) b + as->ifc + np;
	double *Theta = theta + as->ai->nq;

	if (maybe_correct_MA(as->ai, theta, Theta)) {
	    return NADBL;
	}
    }

    as_fill_arrays(as, b);

    as->ifault = flikam(as->phi, as->plen, as->theta, as->qlen,
			as->y, as->e, as->n, &as->sumsq, &as->fact,
			as->vw, as->vl, as->rp1, as->vk, as->r,
			as->toler);

    if (as->ifault > 0) {
	if (as->ifault == 5) {
	    ; // fputs("flikam: (near) non-stationarity\n", stderr);
	} else {
	    fprintf(stderr, "flikam: ifault = %d\n", as->ifault);
	}
	return NADBL;
    }

    if (isnan(as->sumsq) || isnan(as->fact)) {
	; /* leave crit as NA */
    } else {
	as->loglik = crit = as_loglikelihood(as);
    }

    return crit;
}

static double as154_iteration (const double *b, void *data)
{
    struct as_info *as = data;
    double crit = NADBL;
    /* number of actually included AR terms */
    int np = as->ai->np + as->P;
    int nit = 0;

    if (as->ma_check) {
	/* check that MA term(s) are within bounds */
	double *theta = (double *) b + as->ifc + np;
	double *Theta = theta + as->ai->nq;

	if (maybe_correct_MA(as->ai, theta, Theta)) {
	    return NADBL;
	}
    }

    as_fill_arrays(as, b);

    as->ifault = starma(as->plen, as->qlen, as->r, as->np,
			as->phi, as->theta, as->A, as->P0, as->V,
			as->thetab, as->xnext, as->xrow,
			as->rbar, as->nrbar);

    if (as->ifault) {
	fprintf(stderr, "starma: ifault = %d\n", as->ifault);
	return NADBL;
    }

    /* initialization required */
    as->sumlog = as->sumsq = 0;

    karma(as->plen, as->qlen, as->r, as->np,
	  as->phi, as->theta, as->A, as->P0, as->V,
	  as->n, as->y, as->e,
	  &as->sumlog, &as->sumsq, as->iupd,
	  as->toler, as->evec, &nit);

    if (isnan(as->sumlog) || isnan(as->sumsq) || as->sumsq <= 0) {
	; // fprintf(stderr, "karma: got NaNs, nit = %d\n", nit);
    } else {
	as->loglik = crit = as_loglikelihood(as);
    }

    return crit;
}

static const double *as197_llt_callback (const double *b, int i,
					 void *data)
{
    struct as_info *as = data;
    int err;

    as_fill_arrays(as, b);
    err = flikam(as->phi, as->plen, as->theta, as->qlen,
		 as->y, as->e, as->n, &as->sumsq, &as->fact,
		 as->vw, as->vl, as->rp1, as->vk, as->r,
		 as->toler);

    return (err)? NULL : as->e;
}

static const double *as154_llt_callback (const double *b, int i,
					 void *data)
{
    struct as_info *as = data;
    int err = 0, nit = 0;

    as_fill_arrays(as, b);
    as->ifault = starma(as->plen, as->qlen, as->r, as->np,
			as->phi, as->theta, as->A, as->P0, as->V,
			as->thetab, as->xnext, as->xrow,
			as->rbar, as->nrbar);

    as->sumlog = as->sumsq = 0;
    karma(as->plen, as->qlen, as->r, as->np,
	  as->phi, as->theta, as->A, as->P0, as->V,
	  as->n, as->y, as->e,
	  &as->sumlog, &as->sumsq, as->iupd,
	  as->toler, as->evec, &nit);

    if (isnan(as->sumlog) || isnan(as->sumsq) || as->sumsq <= 0) {
	fprintf(stderr, "as154_llt_callback: failed\n");
	err = E_NAN;
    }

    return (err)? NULL : as->e;
}

/* Undo scalings, allowing for standardization of exogenous
   regressors. At present we come here only if such
   standardization has been done.
*/

static int unscramble_scalings (arma_info *ainfo, MODEL *pmod)
{
    gretl_matrix *difmat, *V, *V0;
    double *xbar, *sdx, *b;
    double sdy;
    int nc = ainfo->nc;
    int nx = ainfo->nexo;
    int i, j, xpos;
    int err = 0;

    difmat = gretl_identity_matrix_new(nc);
    V = gretl_matrix_alloc(nc, nc);

    if (difmat == NULL || V == NULL) {
	gretl_matrix_free(difmat);
	gretl_matrix_free(V);
	return E_ALLOC;
    }

    sdy = 1 / ainfo->yscale;
    b = pmod->coeff;
    V0 = gretl_vcv_matrix_from_model(pmod, NULL, &err);
    if (err) {
	goto bailout;
    }

    xbar = ainfo->xstats->val;
    sdx = xbar + nx;
    xpos = nc - nx;
    for (i=xpos, j=0; i<nc; i++, j++) {
	b[i] = sdy * b[i] / sdx[j];
    }

    if (ainfo->ifc && ainfo->yscale != 1.0) {
	b[0] /= ainfo->yscale;
	b[0] += ainfo->yshift;
    }

    difmat->val[0] = sdy;

    for (i=0; i<nx; i++) {
	j = xpos + i;
	gretl_matrix_set(difmat, j, j, sdy / sdx[i]);
    }
    for (i=0; i<nx; i++) {
	if (ainfo->ifc) {
	    b[0] -= xbar[i] * b[xpos+i];
	}
	/* the following line also conditional on ifc? */
	gretl_matrix_set(difmat, 0, xpos+i, -sdy * xbar[i] / sdx[i]);
    }

    err = gretl_matrix_qform(difmat, GRETL_MOD_NONE,
			     V0, V, GRETL_MOD_NONE);
    if (!err) {
	err = gretl_model_write_vcv(pmod, V);
    }

 bailout:

    gretl_matrix_free(difmat);
    gretl_matrix_free(V);
    gretl_matrix_free(V0);

    return err;
}

/* Undo y scaling, on the assumption that standardization of
   exogenous regressors has NOT been done.
*/

static int as_undo_y_scaling (arma_info *ainfo,
			      gretl_matrix *y,
			      double *b,
			      struct as_info *as)
{
    double *beta = b + ainfo->ifc + ainfo->np + ainfo->P +
	ainfo->nq + ainfo->Q;
    double lnl;
    int i, t, err = 0;

    if (ainfo->ifc) {
	b[0] /= ainfo->yscale;
	b[0] += ainfo->yshift;
    }

    for (i=0; i<ainfo->nexo; i++) {
	beta[i] /= ainfo->yscale;
    }

    for (t=0; t<ainfo->fullT; t++) {
	/* restore original y for loglikelihood calculation */
	if (!isnan(as->y[t])) {
	    as->y[t] /= ainfo->yscale;
	    as->y[t] += ainfo->yshift;
	    if (as->y0 != NULL) {
		as->y0[t] /= ainfo->yscale;
		as->y0[t] += ainfo->yshift;
	    }
	}
    }

    lnl = as->cfunc(b, as);

    if (na(lnl)) {
	err = 1;
    }

    return err;
}

static int as_arma_finish (MODEL *pmod,
			   arma_info *ainfo,
			   const DATASET *dset,
			   struct as_info *as,
			   double *b, gretlopt opt,
			   PRN *prn)
{
    int i, t, k = ainfo->nc;
    int do_opg = arma_use_opg(opt);
    int QML = (opt & OPT_R);
    int vcv_err = 0;
    double s2;
    int err;

    pmod->t1 = ainfo->t1;
    pmod->t2 = ainfo->t2;
    pmod->nobs = ainfo->T;
    pmod->ncoeff = ainfo->nc;
    pmod->full_n = dset->n;

    err = gretl_model_allocate_storage(pmod);
    if (err) {
	return err;
    }

    for (i=0; i<k; i++) {
	pmod->coeff[i] = b[i];
    }

    s2 = 0.0;
    i = 0;
    for (t=pmod->t1; t<=pmod->t2; t++) {
	if (isnan(as->e[i])) {
	    pmod->uhat[t] = NADBL;
	} else {
	    s2 += as->e[i] * as->e[i];
	    pmod->uhat[t] = as->e[i];
	}
	i++;
    }

    s2 /= ainfo->T;
    pmod->sigma = sqrt(s2);
    pmod->lnL = as->loglik;

    /* configure for computing variance matrix */
    as->ma_check = 0;

    if (!do_opg) {
	/* base covariance matrix on Hessian (perhaps QML) */
	gretl_matrix *Hinv;
	double d = 0.0; /* adjust? */

	Hinv = numerical_hessian_inverse(b, ainfo->nc, as->cfunc,
					 as, d, &vcv_err);
	if (!vcv_err) {
	    if (QML) {
		vcv_err = arma_QML_vcv(pmod, Hinv, as, as->algo, b, s2,
				       k, ainfo->T, prn);
	    } else {
		err = gretl_model_write_vcv(pmod, Hinv);
		if (!err) {
		    gretl_model_set_vcv_info(pmod, VCV_ML, ML_HESSIAN);
		}
	    }
	} else if (!(opt & OPT_H)) {
	    /* fallback when Hessian not explicitly requested */
	    do_opg = 1;
	    gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "hess-error", 1);
	}
	gretl_matrix_free(Hinv);
    }

    if (do_opg) {
	vcv_err = arma_OPG_vcv(pmod, as, as->algo, b, s2, k, ainfo->T, prn);
	if (!vcv_err) {
	    gretl_model_set_vcv_info(pmod, VCV_ML, ML_OP);
	    pmod->opt |= OPT_G;
	}
    }

    if (!err && arma_stdx(ainfo) && ainfo->yscale != 1.0) {
	pmod->lnL -= ainfo->T * log(1/ainfo->yscale);
    }

    if (!err) {
	write_arma_model_stats(pmod, ainfo, dset);
	arma_model_add_roots(pmod, ainfo, b);
	gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "arma_flags", ARMA_EXACT);
	gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "as_algo", as->algo);
	if (arima_ydiff_only(ainfo)) {
	    pmod->opt |= OPT_Y;
	}
    }

    if (arma_stdx(ainfo)) {
	/* maybe: ainfo->yscale != 1 || arma_stdx(ainfo) */
	unscramble_scalings(ainfo, pmod);
    }

    return err;
}

/* As of 2018-04, the AS 197 implementation for gretl
   can't properly handle missing values within the sample
   range; all other "special cases" should be OK.
*/

static int as197_ok (arma_info *ainfo)
{
    return arma_missvals(ainfo) ? 0 : 1;
}

static int as_arma (const double *coeff,
		    const DATASET *dset,
		    arma_info *ainfo,
		    MODEL *pmod,
		    gretlopt opt)
{
    struct as_info as = {0};
    gretl_matrix *y = NULL;
    double *b = NULL;
    double toler = -1.0;
    int algo, err = 0;

    if (opt & OPT_A) {
	/* --as154 */
	algo = 154;
    } else {
	/* prefer AS 197 if it's usable */
	algo = as197_ok(ainfo) ? 197 : 154;
    }

    err = as_info_init(&as, algo, ainfo, toler);
    if (err) {
	return err;
    }

    b = copyvec(coeff, ainfo->nc);
    if (b == NULL) {
	return E_ALLOC;
    }

    y = form_arma_y_vector(ainfo, &err);
    if (!err) {
	as.y = y->val;
	if (as.ifc || ainfo->nexo > 0) {
	    as.y0 = copyvec(as.y, as.n);
	    if (as.y0 == NULL) {
		err = E_ALLOC;
	    }
	}
    }

    if (!err && ainfo->nexo > 0) {
	if (ainfo->dX != NULL) {
	    as.X = ainfo->dX;
	} else {
	    as.X = form_arma_X_matrix(ainfo, dset, &err);
	    as.free_X = 1;
	}
    }

    if (!err) {
	/* maximize loglikelihood via BFGS */
	gretlopt maxopt = opt | (OPT_A | OPT_U);
	int maxit;
	double toler;

	if (as.algo == 197) {
	    as.cfunc = as197_iteration;
	    if (as.n > 2000) {
		/* try to avoid slowdown on big samples? */
		as.toler = 0.0001;
	    }
	} else {
	    /* AS 154 */
	    as.cfunc = as154_iteration;
	}

	if (as.q > 0 || as.Q > 0) {
	    as.ma_check = 1;
	}

	BFGS_defaults(&maxit, &toler, ARMA);

	err = BFGS_max(b, ainfo->nc, maxit, toler,
		       &ainfo->fncount, &ainfo->grcount,
		       as.cfunc, C_LOGLIK, NULL, &as, NULL,
		       maxopt, ainfo->prn);

	if (!err) {
	    if (ainfo->yscale != 1.0 && !arma_stdx(ainfo)) {
		/* note: this implies recalculation of loglik */
		as_undo_y_scaling(ainfo, y, b, &as);
	    }
	    gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "fncount", ainfo->fncount);
	    gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "grcount", ainfo->grcount);
	    err = as_arma_finish(pmod, ainfo, dset, &as, b,
				 opt, ainfo->prn);
	}
    }

    if (err && !pmod->errcode) {
	pmod->errcode = err;
    }

    as_info_free(&as);
    gretl_matrix_free(y);
    free(b);

    return err;
}