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/*
Exact ML for ARMA using gretl-native Kalman filter.
As of January 2022 we need this for one case that is not
handled by the faster dedicated ARMA codes AS 154 and
AS 197, namely ARIMA (with non-zero integration order)
plus within-sample missing values.
*/
#include "kalman.h"
#define KALMAN_ALL 999
typedef struct kalman_helper_ khelper;
struct kalman_helper_ {
gretl_matrix_block *Bk;
gretl_matrix *a;
gretl_matrix *P;
gretl_matrix *T;
gretl_matrix *B;
gretl_matrix *Z;
gretl_matrix *Q;
gretl_matrix *V;
gretl_matrix *avar;
gretl_matrix *avar2;
gretl_matrix *vQ;
gretl_matrix *T_; /* used only for ARIMA via levels */
gretl_matrix *Q_; /* ditto */
gretl_matrix *P_; /* ditto */
arma_info *kainfo;
};
static int kalman_do_ma_check = 1;
static void kalman_helper_free (khelper *kh)
{
if (kh != NULL) {
gretl_matrix_block_destroy(kh->Bk);
gretl_matrix_free(kh->avar2);
gretl_matrix_free(kh->vQ);
gretl_matrix_free(kh->T_);
gretl_matrix_free(kh->Q_);
gretl_matrix_free(kh->P_);
free(kh);
}
}
static khelper *kalman_helper_new (arma_info *ainfo,
int r, int k)
{
khelper *kh;
int r0, r2;
int err = 0;
kh = malloc(sizeof *kh);
if (kh == NULL) {
return NULL;
}
r0 = ainfo->r0;
r2 = r0 * r0;
kh->avar2 = kh->vQ = NULL;
kh->T_ = kh->Q_ = kh->P_ = NULL;
kh->Bk = gretl_matrix_block_new(&kh->a, r, 1,
&kh->P, r, r,
&kh->T, r, r,
&kh->B, k, 1,
&kh->Z, r, 1,
&kh->Q, r, r,
&kh->V, ainfo->fullT, 1,
&kh->avar, r2, r2,
NULL);
if (kh->Bk == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
} else if (arma_using_vech(ainfo)) {
int m = r0 * (r0 + 1) / 2;
kh->avar2 = gretl_matrix_alloc(m, m);
kh->vQ = gretl_column_vector_alloc(m);
if (kh->avar2 == NULL || kh->vQ == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
}
} else {
kh->vQ = gretl_column_vector_alloc(r2);
if (kh->vQ == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
}
}
if (!err && arima_levels(ainfo)) {
kh->T_ = gretl_matrix_alloc(r0, r0);
kh->Q_ = gretl_matrix_alloc(r0, r0);
kh->P_ = gretl_matrix_alloc(r0, r0);
if (kh->T_ == NULL || kh->Q_ == NULL || kh->P_ == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
}
}
if (err) {
kalman_helper_free(kh);
kh = NULL;
} else {
kh->kainfo = ainfo;
}
return kh;
}
/* Get the dimension of the state-space representation: note
that this is augmented if we're estimating an ARIMA
model using the levels formulation in order to handle
missing values -- see Harvey and Pierse, "Estimating
Missing Observations in Economic Time Series", JASA 1984.
*/
static int ainfo_get_state_size (arma_info *ainfo)
{
int plen = ainfo->p + ainfo->pd * ainfo->P;
int qlen = ainfo->q + ainfo->pd * ainfo->Q;
int r = (plen > qlen + 1)? plen : qlen + 1;
ainfo->r0 = r;
if (arima_levels(ainfo)) {
r += ainfo->d + ainfo->pd * ainfo->D;
}
return r;
}
static int allocate_ac_mc (arma_info *ainfo)
{
int m = (ainfo->P > 0) + (ainfo->Q > 0);
int err = 0;
if (m > 0) {
double *ac = NULL, *mc = NULL;
int n, i = 0;
ainfo->aux = doubles_array_new(m, 0);
if (ainfo->aux == NULL) {
return E_ALLOC;
}
if (ainfo->P > 0) {
n = 1 + ainfo->p + ainfo->pd * ainfo->P;
ac = malloc(n * sizeof *ac);
if (ac == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
} else {
ainfo->aux[i++] = ac;
}
}
if (!err && ainfo->Q > 0) {
n = 1 + ainfo->q + ainfo->pd * ainfo->Q;
mc = malloc(n * sizeof *mc);
if (mc == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
} else {
ainfo->aux[i++] = mc;
}
}
if (err) {
doubles_array_free(ainfo->aux, m);
} else {
ainfo->n_aux = m;
}
}
return err;
}
static void write_big_phi (const double *phi,
const double *Phi,
arma_info *ainfo,
gretl_matrix *F)
{
int pmax = ainfo->p + ainfo->pd * ainfo->P;
double *ac = ainfo->aux[0];
double x, y;
int i, j, k, ii;
for (i=0; i<=pmax; i++) {
ac[i] = 0.0;
}
for (j=-1; j<ainfo->P; j++) {
x = (j < 0)? -1 : Phi[j];
k = 0.0;
for (i=-1; i<ainfo->p; i++) {
if (i < 0) {
y = -1;
} else if (AR_included(ainfo, i)) {
y = phi[k++];
} else {
y = 0.0;
}
ii = (j+1) * ainfo->pd + (i+1);
ac[ii] -= x * y;
}
}
for (i=0; i<pmax; i++) {
gretl_matrix_set(F, 0, i, ac[i+1]);
}
}
static void write_big_theta (const double *theta,
const double *Theta,
arma_info *ainfo,
gretl_matrix *H,
gretl_matrix *F)
{
int qmax = ainfo->q + ainfo->pd * ainfo->Q;
int i = (ainfo->P > 0)? 1 : 0;
double *mc = ainfo->aux[i];
double x, y;
int j, k, ii;
for (i=0; i<=qmax; i++) {
mc[i] = 0.0;
}
for (j=-1; j<ainfo->Q; j++) {
x = (j < 0)? 1 : Theta[j];
k = 0;
for (i=-1; i<ainfo->q; i++) {
if (i < 0) {
y = 1;
} else if (MA_included(ainfo, i)) {
y = theta[k++];
} else {
y = 0.0;
}
ii = (j+1) * ainfo->pd + (i+1);
mc[ii] += x * y;
}
}
for (i=1; i<=qmax; i++) {
if (H != NULL) {
H->val[i] = mc[i];
} else {
gretl_matrix_set(F, ainfo->r0, i, mc[i]);
}
}
}
static void condense_row (gretl_matrix *targ,
const gretl_matrix *src,
int targrow, int srcrow,
int n)
{
double x;
int i, j, k, g;
int targcol = 0;
for (j=0; j<n; j++) {
for (i=j; i<n; i++) {
k = j * n + i;
g = (k % n) * n + k / n;
x = gretl_matrix_get(src, srcrow, k);
if (g != k) {
x += gretl_matrix_get(src, srcrow, g);
}
gretl_matrix_set(targ, targrow, targcol++, x);
}
}
}
static void condense_state_vcv (gretl_matrix *targ,
const gretl_matrix *src,
int n)
{
int posr = 0, posc = 0;
int i, j;
for (i=0; i<n; i++) {
for (j=0; j<n; j++) {
if (j >= i) {
condense_row(targ, src, posr++, posc, n);
}
posc++;
}
}
}
static int kalman_matrices_init (arma_info *ainfo,
khelper *kh,
const double *y)
{
int r0 = ainfo->r0;
int r = kh->T->rows;
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->B);
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->a);
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->P);
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->T);
gretl_matrix_inscribe_I(kh->T, 1, 0, r0 - 1);
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->Q);
gretl_matrix_set(kh->Q, 0, 0, 1.0);
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->Z);
gretl_vector_set(kh->Z, 0, 1.0);
if (arima_levels(ainfo)) {
/* write additional constant elements of T, Z and a */
int d = ainfo->d, D = ainfo->D;
int s = ainfo->pd;
int i, k = d + s * D;
int *c = arima_delta_coeffs(d, D, s);
double y0;
if (c == NULL) {
return E_ALLOC;
}
for (i=0; i<k; i++) {
gretl_matrix_set(kh->T, r0, r0 + i, c[i]);
}
gretl_matrix_set(kh->T, r0, 0, 1.0);
if (r - r0 > 1) {
gretl_matrix_inscribe_I(kh->T, r0 + 1, r0, k - 1);
}
for (i=0; i<k; i++) {
gretl_vector_set(kh->Z, r0 + i, c[i]);
/* lagged data */
y0 = y[ainfo->t1 - 1 - i];
if (ainfo->yscale != 1.0 && !na(y0)) {
y0 -= ainfo->yshift;
y0 *= ainfo->yscale;
}
gretl_vector_set(kh->a, r0 + i, y0);
}
free(c);
#if ARMA_DEBUG
gretl_matrix_print(kh->a, "a0 (arima via levels)");
#endif
/* initialize the plain-arma "shadow" matrices */
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->T_);
gretl_matrix_inscribe_I(kh->T_, 1, 0, r0 - 1);
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->Q_);
gretl_matrix_set(kh->Q_, 0, 0, 1.0);
gretl_matrix_zero(kh->P_);
} else if (ainfo->np == 0 && ainfo->P == 0) {
/* initialize P to identity matrix */
gretl_matrix_inscribe_I(kh->P, 0, 0, kh->P->rows);
}
return 0;
}
static int write_kalman_matrices (khelper *kh,
const double *b,
int idx)
{
arma_info *ainfo = kh->kainfo;
const double *phi = b + ainfo->ifc;
const double *Phi = phi + ainfo->np;
const double *theta = Phi + ainfo->P;
const double *Theta = theta + ainfo->nq;
const double *beta = Theta + ainfo->Q;
double mu = (ainfo->ifc)? b[0] : 0.0;
int rewrite_B = 0;
int rewrite_T = 0;
int rewrite_Z = 0;
int i, k, err = 0;
if (idx == KALMAN_ALL) {
rewrite_B = rewrite_T = rewrite_Z = 1;
} else {
/* called in context of calculating score, for OPG matrix */
int pmax = ainfo->ifc + ainfo->np + ainfo->P;
int tmax = pmax + ainfo->nq + ainfo->Q;
if (ainfo->ifc && idx == 0) {
rewrite_B = 1;
} else if (idx >= ainfo->ifc && idx < pmax) {
rewrite_T = 1;
} else if (idx >= ainfo->ifc && idx < tmax) {
rewrite_Z = 1;
} else {
rewrite_B = 1;
}
}
/* revise for pure MA model */
if (ainfo->np == 0 && ainfo->P == 0 && !arima_levels(ainfo)) {
rewrite_T = 0;
}
/* and for case of no constant or other regressors */
if (ainfo->ifc == 0 && ainfo->nexo == 0) {
rewrite_B = 0;
}
/* See Hamilton, Time Series Analysis, ch 13, p. 375 */
if (rewrite_B) {
/* const and coeffs on exogenous vars */
gretl_vector_set(kh->B, 0, mu);
for (i=0; i<ainfo->nexo; i++) {
gretl_vector_set(kh->B, i + 1, beta[i]);
}
}
if (rewrite_Z) {
/* form the Z' vector using theta and/or Theta */
if (ainfo->Q > 0) {
write_big_theta(theta, Theta, ainfo, kh->Z, NULL);
} else {
k = 0;
for (i=0; i<ainfo->q; i++) {
if (MA_included(ainfo, i)) {
gretl_vector_set(kh->Z, i+1, theta[k++]);
} else {
gretl_vector_set(kh->Z, i+1, 0.0);
}
}
}
}
if (rewrite_T) {
/* form the T matrix using phi and/or Phi */
gretl_matrix *T = (kh->T_ != NULL)? kh->T_ : kh->T;
gretl_matrix *Q = (kh->Q_ != NULL)? kh->Q_ : kh->Q;
gretl_matrix *P = (kh->P_ != NULL)? kh->P_ : kh->P;
if (ainfo->P > 0) {
write_big_phi(phi, Phi, ainfo, T);
} else {
k = 0;
for (i=0; i<ainfo->p; i++) {
if (AR_included(ainfo, i)) {
gretl_matrix_set(T, 0, i, phi[k++]);
} else {
gretl_matrix_set(T, 0, i, 0.0);
}
}
}
if (arima_levels(ainfo)) {
/* the full T matrix incorporates \theta */
if (ainfo->Q > 0) {
write_big_theta(theta, Theta, ainfo, NULL, kh->T);
} else {
k = 0;
for (i=0; i<ainfo->q; i++) {
if (MA_included(ainfo, i)) {
gretl_matrix_set(kh->T, ainfo->r0, i+1, theta[k++]);
} else {
gretl_matrix_set(kh->T, ainfo->r0, i+1, 0.0);
}
}
}
}
/* form $P_{1|0}$ (MSE) matrix, as per Hamilton, ch 13, p. 378. */
gretl_matrix_kronecker_product(T, T, kh->avar);
gretl_matrix_I_minus(kh->avar);
if (arma_using_vech(ainfo)) {
condense_state_vcv(kh->avar2, kh->avar, gretl_matrix_rows(T));
gretl_matrix_vectorize_h(kh->vQ, Q);
err = gretl_LU_solve(kh->avar2, kh->vQ);
if (!err) {
gretl_matrix_unvectorize_h(P, kh->vQ);
}
} else {
gretl_matrix_vectorize(kh->vQ, Q);
err = gretl_LU_solve(kh->avar, kh->vQ);
if (!err) {
gretl_matrix_unvectorize(P, kh->vQ);
}
}
}
if (arima_levels(ainfo)) {
/* complete the job on T, Q, P */
gretl_matrix_inscribe_matrix(kh->T, kh->T_, 0, 0, GRETL_MOD_NONE);
gretl_matrix_inscribe_matrix(kh->Q, kh->Q_, 0, 0, GRETL_MOD_NONE);
gretl_matrix_inscribe_matrix(kh->P, kh->P_, 0, 0, GRETL_MOD_NONE);
}
return err;
}
static int rewrite_kalman_matrices (kalman *K, const double *b, int i)
{
khelper *kh = (khelper *) kalman_get_data(K);
int err = write_kalman_matrices(kh, b, i);
if (!err) {
kalman_set_initial_state_vector(K, kh->a);
kalman_set_initial_MSE_matrix(K, kh->P);
}
return err;
}
/* used only in obtaining the OPG, if wanted */
static const double *kalman_arma_llt_callback (const double *b, int i,
void *data)
{
kalman *K = (kalman *) data;
khelper *kh = kalman_get_data(K);
int err;
rewrite_kalman_matrices(K, b, i);
err = kfilter_standard(K, NULL);
return (err)? NULL : kh->V->val;
}
static double kalman_arma_ll (const double *b, void *data)
{
kalman *K = (kalman *) data;
khelper *kh = kalman_get_data(K);
arma_info *ainfo = kh->kainfo;
int offset = ainfo->ifc + ainfo->np + ainfo->P;
double *theta = (double *) b + offset;
double *Theta = theta + ainfo->nq;
double ll = NADBL;
int err = 0;
if (kalman_do_ma_check && maybe_correct_MA(ainfo, theta, Theta)) {
pputs(kalman_get_printer(K), _("MA estimate(s) out of bounds\n"));
return NADBL;
}
err = rewrite_kalman_matrices(K, b, KALMAN_ALL);
if (!err) {
err = kfilter_standard(K, NULL);
ll = kalman_get_loglik(K);
}
return ll;
}
static int kalman_arma_finish (MODEL *pmod,
arma_info *ainfo,
const DATASET *dset,
kalman *K, double *b,
gretlopt opt, PRN *prn)
{
khelper *kh = kalman_get_data(K);
int do_opg = arma_use_opg(opt);
int i, t, k = ainfo->nc;
int QML = (opt & OPT_R);
double s2;
int err;
pmod->t1 = ainfo->t1;
pmod->t2 = ainfo->t2;
pmod->nobs = ainfo->T;
pmod->ncoeff = ainfo->nc;
pmod->full_n = dset->n;
/* in the Kalman case the basic model struct is empty, so we
have to allocate for coefficients, residuals and so on
*/
err = gretl_model_allocate_storage(pmod);
if (err) {
return err;
}
for (i=0; i<k; i++) {
pmod->coeff[i] = b[i];
}
i = 0;
for (t=pmod->t1; t<=pmod->t2; t++) {
pmod->uhat[t] = gretl_vector_get(kh->V, i++);
}
s2 = kalman_get_arma_variance(K);
pmod->sigma = sqrt(s2);
pmod->lnL = kalman_get_loglik(K);
if (!do_opg) {
/* covariance matrix based on Hessian (perhaps QML) */
gretl_matrix *Hinv;
double d = 0.0; /* adjust? */
kalman_do_ma_check = 0;
Hinv = numerical_hessian_inverse(b, ainfo->nc, kalman_arma_ll,
K, d, &err);
kalman_do_ma_check = 1;
if (!err) {
if (QML) {
err = arma_QML_vcv(pmod, Hinv, K, 0, b, s2, k, ainfo->T, prn);
} else {
err = gretl_model_write_vcv(pmod, Hinv);
if (!err) {
gretl_model_set_vcv_info(pmod, VCV_ML, ML_HESSIAN);
}
}
} else if (!(opt & OPT_H)) {
/* fallback when Hessian not explicitly requested */
err = 0;
do_opg = 1;
gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "hess-error", 1);
}
gretl_matrix_free(Hinv);
}
if (do_opg) {
err = arma_OPG_vcv(pmod, K, 0, b, s2, k, ainfo->T, prn);
if (!err) {
gretl_model_set_vcv_info(pmod, VCV_ML, ML_OP);
pmod->opt |= OPT_G;
}
}
if (!err) {
write_arma_model_stats(pmod, ainfo, dset);
arma_model_add_roots(pmod, ainfo, b);
gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "arma_flags", ARMA_EXACT);
if (arma_lbfgs(ainfo)) {
pmod->opt |= OPT_L;
}
if (arima_ydiff_only(ainfo)) {
pmod->opt |= OPT_Y;
}
}
return err;
}
static int kalman_undo_y_scaling (arma_info *ainfo,
gretl_matrix *y, double *b,
kalman *K)
{
double *beta = b + ainfo->ifc + ainfo->np + ainfo->P +
ainfo->nq + ainfo->Q;
int i, t, T = ainfo->t2 - ainfo->t1 + 1;
int err = 0;
if (ainfo->ifc) {
b[0] /= ainfo->yscale;
b[0] += ainfo->yshift;
}
for (i=0; i<ainfo->nexo; i++) {
beta[i] /= ainfo->yscale;
}
i = ainfo->t1;
for (t=0; t<T; t++) {
y->val[t] /= ainfo->yscale;
y->val[t] += ainfo->yshift;
}
if (na(kalman_arma_ll(b, K))) {
err = 1;
}
return err;
}
static void free_arma_X_matrix (arma_info *ainfo, gretl_matrix *X)
{
if (X == ainfo->dX) {
gretl_matrix_free(ainfo->dX);
ainfo->dX = NULL;
} else {
gretl_matrix_free(X);
}
}
static int add_smoothed_y (kalman *K, MODEL *pmod,
arma_info *ainfo)
{
gretl_matrix *S;
int err = 0;
S = kalman_smooth(K, OPT_NONE, NULL, &err);
#if 0
fprintf(stderr, "HERE ainfo->r0 = %d\n", ainfo->r0);
fprintf(stderr, " ainfo->t1 = %d, ainfo->t2 = %d\n", ainfo->t1, ainfo->t2);
#endif
if (S != NULL) {
gretl_matrix *m = gretl_matrix_alloc(S->rows, 1);
int t;
if (m == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
} else {
for (t=0; t<S->rows; t++) {
m->val[t] = gretl_matrix_get(S, t+1, ainfo->r0);
}
m->val[S->rows-1] = NADBL;
gretl_matrix_set_t1(m, ainfo->t1);
gretl_matrix_set_t2(m, ainfo->t2);
gretl_model_set_matrix_as_data(pmod, "smstate", m);
}
gretl_matrix_free(S);
}
return err;
}
static int kalman_arma (const double *coeff,
const DATASET *dset,
arma_info *ainfo,
MODEL *pmod,
gretlopt opt)
{
kalman *K = NULL;
khelper *kh = NULL;
gretl_matrix *y = NULL;
gretl_matrix *X = NULL;
int r, k = 1 + ainfo->nexo; /* number of exog vars plus space for const */
double *b;
int err = 0;
b = copyvec(coeff, ainfo->nc);
if (b == NULL) {
return E_ALLOC;
}
y = form_arma_y_vector(ainfo, &err);
if (!err && ainfo->nexo > 0) {
if (ainfo->dX != NULL) {
X = ainfo->dX;
} else {
X = form_arma_X_matrix(ainfo, dset, &err);
}
}
if (!err) {
err = allocate_ac_mc(ainfo);
}
if (err) {
goto bailout;
}
r = ainfo_get_state_size(ainfo);
/* when should we use vech apparatus? */
if (r > 4) {
set_arma_use_vech(ainfo);
}
kh = kalman_helper_new(ainfo, r, k);
if (kh == NULL) {
err = E_ALLOC;
goto bailout;
}
kalman_matrices_init(ainfo, kh, dset->Z[ainfo->yno]);
K = kalman_new(kh->a, kh->P, kh->T, kh->B, kh->Z, kh->Q,
NULL, y, X, NULL, kh->V, &err);
if (err) {
fprintf(stderr, "kalman_new(): err = %d\n", err);
} else {
int save_lbfgs = libset_get_bool(USE_LBFGS);
double toler;
int maxit;
kalman_attach_printer(K, ainfo->prn);
kalman_attach_data(K, kh);
kalman_set_arma_ll(K);
BFGS_defaults(&maxit, &toler, ARMA);
if (save_lbfgs) {
ainfo->pflags |= ARMA_LBFGS;
} else if (opt & OPT_L) {
libset_set_bool(USE_LBFGS, 1);
ainfo->pflags |= ARMA_LBFGS;
}
err = BFGS_max(b, ainfo->nc, maxit, toler,
&ainfo->fncount, &ainfo->grcount,
kalman_arma_ll, C_LOGLIK,
NULL, K, NULL, opt | OPT_A,
ainfo->prn);
if (save_lbfgs == 0 && (opt & OPT_L)) {
libset_set_bool(USE_LBFGS, 0);
}
if (err) {
fprintf(stderr, "kalman_arma: optimizer returned %d\n", err);
} else if (ainfo->yscale == 1.0 && ainfo->r0 > 0) {
/* experimental, could handle non-unit yscale with some work? */
add_smoothed_y(K, pmod, ainfo);
}
}
if (!err && ainfo->yscale != 1.0) {
kalman_undo_y_scaling(ainfo, y, b, K);
}
if (!err) {
gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "fncount", ainfo->fncount);
gretl_model_set_int(pmod, "grcount", ainfo->grcount);
err = kalman_arma_finish(pmod, ainfo, dset, K, b,
opt, ainfo->prn);
}
bailout:
if (err) {
pmod->errcode = err;
}
kalman_free(K);
kalman_helper_free(kh);
gretl_matrix_free(y);
free_arma_X_matrix(ainfo, X);
free(b);
return err;
}
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